Was Fourth Front Move To Give Up Its Plan To Benefit Congress?

Politics…politics…politics! Till the Punjab elections are not held, it seems the election drama is going to continue and the run up to the elections is going to throw up many questions.

Is the formation and then dissolution of the Fourth Front an attempt at making situation favourable for the Congress? Is it a planned move of former MP Navjot Singh Sidhu to improve his prospects of joining the Congress? The reason why Aam Aadmi Party is leading in all the three opinion polls of Punjabi Khurki is its brigade of super active social media volunteers? Or is it that the ruling Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP combine working underground on a winning formula? 

Since the very beginning, one party that has clearly been leading in the Punjabi Khurki’s online opinion polls conducted to find out which party will come to power in 2017 is the Aam Aadmi Party.

However, by the time Punjabi Khurki conducted its third online opinion poll in the same context, Congress managed to regain the ground lost to Fourth Front but not to the extent of the first poll. As anticipated, the 7 percent votes that the Fourth Front had polled in the second poll conducted by Punjabi Khurki went back in the favour of Congress. But as the loss was of 10 percent in the previous opinion poll, the regain proved to only a face saver for the Congress.

Very clearly, the Fourth Front’s decision to dissolve their front as of now with the aim to strengthen their standing till the next elections in 2022 has gone in the Congress’ kitty. How? Vis-a-vis the poll conducted earlier, the Congress gained 6 percent to stand at 27 percent against 21 percent in the second poll.

At the same time, Shiromani Akali Dal’s prospects seemed to be dimming further. The absence of the Navjot Singh Sidhu-led Fourth Front didn’t leave that huge an impact on SAD’s prospects as did the formation of it.

The way ahead Aam Aadmi Party continued to lead albeit with a marginal difference of 1 per cent as compared to its 59 per cent seeing a one per cent increase in the third online opinion poll.

Basically, the 7 per cent that the Fourth Front had polled can be divided like this: Congress earning 6 per cent, Akalis losing 1 per cent to come to 10 and already-strong Aam Aadmi Party going a notch higher by 1 percent (59 to 60 percent).

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Punjabi Khurki had earlier checked the pulse of the state through its first online poll and asked who in their opinion would form the next government.

As the equations changed with former Rajya Sabha MP Navjot Singh Sidhu announcing the formation of a Fourth Front, Punjabi Khurki started another poll on September 8, 2016 by including Sidhu’s front in it. But this second online poll also had to be stopped abruptly after Sidhu announced his decision on not forming a separate party.

The results of this opinion poll threw up expected results. On September 23, the results were something like this:

punjab-election-poll-2

The Fourth Front of Awaaz-e-Punjab managed to have 7 percent votes, clearly causing a dent to the giants Congress and Akali Dal.

This digital opinion poll generated response from 2,567 people. While the Aam Aadmi Party saw a surge in its vote share from 51 to 59 per cent, both the major parties Congress and Shiromani Akali Dal saw a dip. The Congress went down by 10 percent to 21 as compared to 31 in the previous poll and the Akali Dal-BJP combine went down to 11 percent from the 15 percent vote share it had in the previous poll.

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